tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 1891 at 19:19, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1891 Southwest ELP 19:19 SAN 20:19 31% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 3h 01m Denver DEN 11:54 → SAN 13:23UA 1940 7h 23m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:37 → IAH 08:45UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 41m Houston IAH 12:26 → SAN 13:49UA 2399 9h 12m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → ELP 13:55 → ATL 18:57DL 1002 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 10h 02m 94% 70%
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:05 → IAH 11:00UA 3994 · flown by Mesa 3h 26m Houston IAH 14:26 → SAN 15:59UA 1114 8h 54m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → ELP 05:25 → DFW 08:20AA 2029 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:20 → SAN 10:42AA 1058 6h 17m 90% 67%
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728 2h 42m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 14m 94% 64%
AmericanDetails → ELP 10:03 → DFW 12:59AA 1365 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:42 → SAN 17:49AA 2266 8h 46m 97% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ELP 13:55 → ATL 18:57DL 1002 52m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → SAN 21:16DL 819 8h 21m 74% 54%
FrontierDetails → ELP 19:25 → DEN 21:27F9 4418 1h 02m Denver DEN 22:29 → SAN 00:02 +1F9 2711 5h 37m 68% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON