Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 3995 at 11:29, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3995 Southwest	EUG 11:29	SJC 13:08	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 05:18 → SLC 08:19DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 17m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Seattle	SEA 20:57 → SJC 23:16DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	5h 31m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	6h 56m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	EUG 07:55 → SEA 09:30DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 11:45 → SJC 14:15DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest	6h 20m	96%	82%
American Details →	EUG 05:28 → PHX 08:16AA 4048 · flown by Envoy	1h 53m Phoenix	PHX 10:09 → SJC 12:27AA 2631	6h 59m	93%	72%
Alaska Details →	EUG 13:42 → SEA 14:57AS 2188 · flown by Horizon	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 18:07 → SJC 20:14AS 1303	6h 32m	100%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	EUG 13:42 → SEA 14:57AS 2188 · flown by Horizon	50m Seattle	SEA 15:47 → SJC 17:58AS 657	4h 16m	29%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON