Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 1899 at 05:07, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1899 Southwest	EUG 05:07	SMF 06:32	4%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 05:18 → SLC 08:19DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 58m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	7h 01m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 21:05 → SMF 23:05DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest	5h 20m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	EUG 07:55 → SEA 09:30DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Seattle	SEA 10:51 → SMF 12:50DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	4h 55m	90%	76%
American Details →	EUG 05:28 → PHX 08:16AA 4048 · flown by Envoy	1h 49m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → SMF 12:11AA 1677	6h 43m	93%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	EUG 13:42 → SEA 14:57AS 2188 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 15:58 → SMF 17:50AS 764	4h 08m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON