tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 09:38, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → EWR 09:38 → SEA 12:27AS 373 2h 13m Seattle SEA 14:40 → ANC 17:16AS 99 11h 38m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:18 → DEN 15:32UA 2120 3h 39m Denver DEN 19:11 → ANC 23:01UA 280 13h 43m 98% 66%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 17:41 → SEA 20:32AS 296 2h 18m Seattle SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:33 +1AS 703 11h 52m 94% 64%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:24 → ORD 12:06UA 1525 3h 55m Chicago ORD 16:01 → ANC 19:38UA 461 13h 14m 97% 63%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299 2h 40m Seattle SEA 13:15 → ANC 15:52AS 1381 12h 27m 98% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 10h 00m 69% 47%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053 1h 08m Chicago ORD 16:01 → ANC 19:38UA 461 10h 28m 69% 45%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 09:38 → SEA 12:27AS 373 48m Seattle SEA 13:15 → ANC 15:52AS 1381 10h 14m 63% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON