Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, G7 4409 at 09:58, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G7 4409 GoJet	EWR 09:58	BGR 11:08	21%	4%	3.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:00AA 2505	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 11:27 → BGR 14:07AA 1411	8h 07m	97%	83%
American Details →	EWR 10:40 → ORD 12:25AA 3170	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 13:41 → BGR 17:08AA 3683 · flown by Envoy	6h 28m	84%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON