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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 3641 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 3641 EWR 08:45 → CMH 10:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest G7 4436 EWR 17:17 → CMH 19:16 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 3641 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 08:45 CMH 10:40 11% 3% 2.7% 88%
UA 3638 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 10:38 CMH 12:33 12% 3% 2.2% 89%
UA 2057 United EWR 13:54 CMH 15:46 21% 11% 1.4% no record
UA 3545 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 17:57 CMH 19:59 30% 15% 6.5% 79%
UA 3481 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 18:55 CMH 20:57 32% 16% 7.3% 77%
UA 3692 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 20:02 CMH 21:59 32% 18% 8.5% 79%worse than usual
G7 4436 GoJet EWR 17:17 CMH 19:16 36% 17% 5.8% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON