Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: G7 4453 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–44%.

Safest bet that day G7 4453 EWR 06:59 → CVG 09:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5065 EWR 20:32 → CVG 22:37 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4453 GoJet	EWR 06:59	CVG 09:04	14%	2%	2.0%	no record
DL 5026 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	EWR 09:57	CVG 11:59	16%	4%	1.7%	86%
UA 3417 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:49	CVG 11:00	16%	3%	2.0%	83%
UA 3455 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:03	CVG 16:03	25%	7%	3.3%	85%worse than usual
YX 3673 Republic	EWR 21:15	CVG 23:38	36%	16%	7.8%	no record
YX 3623 Republic	EWR 18:28	CVG 20:55	38%	15%	8.0%	no record
YX 754 Republic	EWR 18:30	CVG 20:38	42%	16%	7.1%	no record
DL 5065 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	EWR 20:32	CVG 22:37	44%	20%	6.4%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON