Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 732 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day YX 732 EWR 08:58 → GRR 11:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3580 EWR 19:30 → GRR 21:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 732 Republic	EWR 08:58	GRR 11:25	14%	4%	2.2%	no record
UA 3486 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 09:00	GRR 11:12	14%	4%	2.6%	90%
UA 3419 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:52	GRR 16:03	22%	8%	4.4%	85%
UA 3580 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:30	GRR 21:50	33%	18%	8.1%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON