Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 4509 at 12:16 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 4509 EWR 12:16 → GSO 14:12 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest G7 4406 EWR 23:00 → GSO 00:47 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4509 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 12:16	GSO 14:12	23%	7%	3.4%	66%
UA 3576 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:30	GSO 18:25	24%	11%	3.9%	79%
G7 4406 GoJet	EWR 23:00	GSO 00:47	35%	13%	6.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON