Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 3604 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 3604 EWR 08:30 → GSP 10:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 3584 EWR 16:18 → GSP 18:03 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3604 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:30	GSP 10:37	16%	3%	2.2%	84%
G7 4463 GoJet	EWR 12:59	GSP 15:01	26%	7%	3.7%	no record
YX 3572 Republic	EWR 21:15	GSP 23:35	33%	17%	8.7%	no record
UA 3584 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:18	GSP 18:03	36%	12%	5.8%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON