Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:11 → HOU 13:25DL 1195	7h 20m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 51m	95%	74%
American Details →	EWR 12:37 → DFW 15:37AA 1796	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:07AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	8h 30m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 21:29 → HOU 22:43DL 2051	8h 22m	94%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON