tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 07:42, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Jackson on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:42 → DEN 09:58UA 1758 2h 05m Denver DEN 12:03 → JAC 13:35UA 2193 7h 53m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434 1h 23m Los Angeles LAX 10:16 → JAC 13:37UA 1041 9h 37m 94% 73%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 7h 00m 84% 73%
UnitedDetails → EWR 08:15 → SFO 11:29UA 1777 2h 05m San Francisco SFO 13:34 → JAC 16:58UA 1593 10h 43m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455 1h 37m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 7h 25m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:34 → DFW 09:31AA 2728 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:50 → JAC 13:00AA 1883 8h 26m 96% 67%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530 1h 18m Chicago ORD 08:59 → JAC 11:09UA 2176 7h 09m 92% 67%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:18 → DEN 15:32UA 2120 3h 52m Denver DEN 19:24 → JAC 21:02UA 785 9h 44m 98% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:18 → DEN 15:32UA 2120 48m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 6h 35m 59% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON