Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1196 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 1196 EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1446 EWR 18:27 → MIA 21:23 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1196 American Flight history →	EWR 05:31	MIA 08:45	9%	3%	1.6%	95%
UA 1135 United	EWR 06:56	MIA 09:53	11%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 1152 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	MIA 11:10	16%	5%	1.8%	93%
UA 2785 United Flight history →	EWR 09:12	MIA 12:30	19%	5%	1.3%	97%worse than usual
UA 2295 United Flight history →	EWR 11:31	MIA 14:38	26%	8%	3.5%	81%
AA 1801 American Flight history →	EWR 12:24	MIA 15:40	29%	10%	4.1%	82%worse than usual
UA 623 United	EWR 21:35	MIA 00:42	39%	19%	2.7%	no record
UA 1498 United	EWR 15:42	MIA 18:40	42%	19%	1.5%	no record
UA 791 United	EWR 20:24	MIA 23:21	48%	22%	2.8%	no record
AA 1446 American	EWR 18:27	MIA 21:23	52%	21%	3.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON