Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: YX 3712 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 3712 Republic	EWR 08:44	MSN 10:24	14%	4%	3.4%	no record
UA 3620 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:28	MSN 20:10	35%	15%	7.6%	80%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EWR 06:03 → DEN 08:19UA 670	1h 53m Denver	DEN 10:12 → MSN 13:36UA 2368	8h 33m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 04m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:30 → BOS 10:54DL 5764 · flown by Republic	2h 14m Boston	BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic	6h 33m	99%	76%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:00AA 2505	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 11:27 → MSN 12:38AA 3130	7h 38m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:16 → MSN 16:25DL 2599	6h 54m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	8h 17m	95%	71%
Delta Details →	EWR 13:00 → DTW 14:58DL 2577	2h 01m Detroit	DTW 16:59 → MSN 17:24DL 5245 · flown by Endeavor	5h 24m	92%	69%
United Details →	EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 12:53 → MSN 13:51UA 2349	6h 52m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 18:45 → MSP 21:00DL 2866	59m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	5h 15m	57%	40%
United Details →	EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → MSN 20:46UA 630	5h 01m	59%	38%
United Details →	EWR 18:39 → ORD 20:10UA 254	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 21:24 → MSN 22:25UA 1251	4h 46m	57%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON