Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1527 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1527 EWR 08:40 → MSY 11:01 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 782 EWR 15:43 → MSY 17:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1527 United Flight history →	EWR 08:40	MSY 11:01	17%	5%	0.8%	74%
UA 2468 United Flight history →	EWR 14:08	MSY 16:24	25%	11%	0.8%	83%
UA 782 United Flight history →	EWR 15:43	MSY 17:58	33%	15%	0.9%	80%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	52m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:16DL 3157	4h 45m	75%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON