tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 06:03, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:03 → DEN 08:19UA 670 3h 06m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 9h 44m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 11:26 → ONT 12:25DL 1173 8h 10m 91% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → SFO 09:09UA 2115 1h 31m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 9h 12m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328 3h 12m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 10h 52m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → EWR 10:48 → PHX 13:24AA 2825 3h 50m Phoenix PHX 17:14 → ONT 18:41AA 1666 10h 53m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:30 → SFO 16:28UA 1227 2h 42m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → ONT 20:50UA 2478 10h 20m 88% 70%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:34 → DFW 09:31AA 2728 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:28 → ONT 13:45AA 2635 10h 11m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 30m 97% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:43 → IAH 19:26UA 2815 1h 05m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 8h 12m 66% 48%
FrontierDetails → EWR 13:35 → DFW 16:27F9 2471 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:32 → ONT 18:57F9 4689 8h 22m 73% 48%
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:18 → DFW 20:21AA 813 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:51 → ONT 23:13AA 2147 8h 55m 73% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON