Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3185 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–63%.

Safest bet that day AA 3185 EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 254 EWR 18:39 → ORD 20:10 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3185 American Flight history →	EWR 05:30	ORD 07:15	10%	6%	4.7%	88%
UA 530 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ORD 07:41	11%	4%	1.6%	92%
AA 1600 American	EWR 06:52	ORD 08:25	15%	8%	3.8%	no record
UA 2488 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	ORD 09:43	22%	7%	1.5%	88%worse than usual
UA 2290 United Flight history →	EWR 09:20	ORD 11:04	23%	10%	1.5%	83%
UA 2754 United	EWR 07:37	ORD 09:15	25%	8%	1.6%	no record
AA 3170 American Flight history →	EWR 10:40	ORD 12:25	26%	13%	3.8%	84%
UA 1525 United Flight history →	EWR 10:24	ORD 12:06	28%	10%	1.6%	79%
UA 1439 United	EWR 11:12	ORD 12:46	35%	17%	1.9%	no record
UA 2053 United Flight history →	EWR 13:10	ORD 14:53	42%	22%	2.0%	77%worse than usual
UA 1206 United Flight history →	EWR 21:56	ORD 23:25	48%	24%	2.9%	71%worse than usual
AA 1691 American Flight history →	EWR 14:47	ORD 16:14	50%	28%	5.0%	54%
UA 1871 United	EWR 20:54	ORD 22:32	51%	28%	2.6%	no record
UA 2788 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	ORD 16:28	52%	24%	1.5%	50%
AA 1936 American Flight history →	EWR 17:21	ORD 19:23	53%	30%	5.7%	70%worse than usual
UA 661 United Flight history →	EWR 16:45	ORD 18:34	54%	26%	2.0%	50%
UA 546 United Flight history →	EWR 19:40	ORD 21:11	56%	25%	2.1%	69%worse than usual
UA 254 United Flight history →	EWR 18:39	ORD 20:10	63%	28%	2.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON