Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2115 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–51%.

Safest bet that day UA 2115 EWR 06:00 → SFO 09:09 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1558 EWR 20:11 → SFO 22:51 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2115 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SFO 09:09	14%	3%	1.0%	85%
UA 1960 United Flight history →	EWR 07:44	SFO 10:43	21%	6%	1.0%	72%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	EWR 08:15	SFO 11:29	23%	7%	1.0%	72%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:42	SFO 13:05	24%	7%	1.0%	50%
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	27%	9%	1.0%	72%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	31%	9%	1.0%	68%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	33%	12%	1.1%	73%
UA 2004 United Flight history →	EWR 16:13	SFO 19:30	35%	15%	1.2%	78%worse than usual
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	35%	14%	1.0%	68%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	41%	15%	1.2%	62%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 20:44	SFO 00:01	43%	18%	1.6%	62%
UA 1558 United Flight history →	EWR 20:11	SFO 22:51	51%	20%	1.6%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 19m	97%	82%
United Details →	EWR 07:42 → DEN 09:58UA 1758	1h 23m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	8h 22m	96%	75%
United Details →	EWR 06:03 → DEN 08:19UA 670	1h 24m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	8h 22m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON