Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2423 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 2423 EWR 07:35 → SNA 10:44 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1690 EWR 17:00 → SNA 20:06 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2423 United Flight history →	EWR 07:35	SNA 10:44	12%	3%	0.9%	94%
UA 2477 United	EWR 14:27	SNA 17:15	29%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 1690 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SNA 20:06	35%	10%	1.1%	87%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 07:42 → DEN 09:58UA 1758	1h 22m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320	8h 09m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	46m Detroit	DTW 08:36 → SNA 10:15DL 1857	7h 15m	91%	72%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 26m	94%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON