Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: American via Charlotte, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 09:04 → STT 12:59AA 2684	7h 59m	97%	81%
American Details →	EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45AA 1196	1h 13m Miami	MIA 09:58 → STT 12:52AA 943	7h 21m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:35 → ATL 09:01DL 2353	57m Atlanta	ATL 09:58 → STT 13:45DL 1899	7h 10m	88%	72%
American Details →	EWR 08:00 → MIA 11:10AA 1152	1h 45m Miami	MIA 12:55 → STT 15:43AA 1391	7h 43m	95%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON