Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 3579 at 10:24 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3579 EYW 10:24 → MIA 11:22 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3255 EYW 14:35 → MIA 15:31 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3579 Envoy	EYW 10:24	MIA 11:22	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3438 Envoy	EYW 20:06	MIA 21:04	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 3895 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 17:29	MIA 18:27	27%	7%	2.0%	93%worse than usual
AA 3255 American	EYW 14:35	MIA 15:31	29%	9%	3.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON