Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 1687 at 17:31, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1687 American	EYW 17:31	PHL 20:31	36%	16%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:27 → ATL 09:37DL 1072	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	5h 57m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 41m	96%	73%
American Details →	EYW 17:29 → MIA 18:27AA 3895 · flown by Envoy	3h 37m Miami	MIA 22:04 → PHL 00:55 +1AA 2188	7h 26m	100%	69%
American Details →	EYW 16:52 → CLT 19:10AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → PHL 00:13 +1AA 1827	7h 21m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	EYW 13:57 → ATL 16:07DL 1472	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:23 → PHL 20:26DL 2065	6h 29m	97%	65%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:31 → ATL 13:42DL 1281	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 41m	94%	64%
American Details →	EYW 14:07 → CLT 16:21AA 1816	1h 52m Charlotte	CLT 18:13 → PHL 19:55AA 423	5h 48m	86%	56%
American Details →	EYW 15:01 → DFW 16:58AA 305	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542	9h 34m	94%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON