Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: QX 2272 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day QX 2272 GEG 07:00 → BOI 09:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2110 GEG 17:35 → BOI 19:54 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


QX 2272 Horizon	GEG 07:00	BOI 09:19	8%	3%	1.2%	no record
OO 3466 SkyWest	GEG 10:12	BOI 12:31	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 3219 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 13:57	BOI 16:16	11%	5%	0.6%	90%
QX 2110 Horizon	GEG 17:35	BOI 19:54	18%	4%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON