tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 35–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 677 American Flight history → GEG 15:25 ORD 21:05 35% 9% 0.9% 53%
UA 5623 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 11:09 ORD 17:00 36% 15% 1.8% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → GEG 19:44 → SEA 20:51AS 319 2h 48m Seattle SEA 23:39 → ORD 05:38 +1AS 285 7h 54m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 8h 38m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:09 → SFO 15:51UA 5217 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m San Francisco SFO 18:48 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958 9h 50m 96% 72%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 13:34 → SEA 14:42AS 455 3h 06m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 8h 25m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → GEG 14:26 → MSP 19:15DL 2437 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 21:21 → ORD 23:00DL 1563 6h 34m 93% 67%
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615 1h 33m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 6h 05m 96% 66%
AmericanDetails → GEG 12:53 → DFW 18:36AA 1381 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → ORD 00:00 +1AA 1894 9h 07m 98% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GEG 12:53 → DFW 18:36AA 1381 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:41 → ORD 22:08AA 2346 7h 15m 74% 46%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:09 → SFO 15:51UA 5217 · flown by SkyWest 46m San Francisco SFO 16:37 → ORD 22:50UA 1887 7h 41m 67% 45%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 07:13 → SEA 08:20AS 360 46m Seattle SEA 09:06 → ORD 15:01AS 265 5h 48m 38% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON