Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4361 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4361 GEG 05:54 → PHX 08:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 540 GEG 14:34 → PHX 17:24 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4361 Southwest	GEG 05:54	PHX 08:35	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 2225 American	GEG 06:34	PHX 09:30	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 540 American Flight history →	GEG 14:34	PHX 17:24	28%	7%	0.6%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON