Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 971 at 10:36, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 971 Southwest	GEG 10:36	SJC 12:50	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest	3h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	98%	86%
Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 56m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SJC 19:44AS 345	7h 02m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 15:59 → SEA 17:16DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 20:57 → SJC 23:16DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 15m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218	3h 27m Seattle	SEA 10:07 → SJC 12:25DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:30 → SLC 16:14DL 1452	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	4h 56m	91%	82%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	6h 29m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:34 → SEA 14:42AS 455	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 15:47 → SJC 17:58AS 657	4h 24m	74%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON