tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1942 at 05:29 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1942 Southwest GEG 05:29 SMF 07:33 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 636 Southwest GEG 18:14 SMF 20:16 17% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 56m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 34m 100% 86%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 54m Portland PDX 17:46 → SMF 19:25AS 793 6h 43m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:37 → SEA 19:01DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest 2h 04m Seattle SEA 21:05 → SMF 23:05DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest 5h 28m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Los Angeles LAX 12:05 → SMF 13:32DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 7h 12m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → GEG 16:11 → LAX 19:00DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Los Angeles LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Seattle SEA 10:51 → SMF 12:50DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 5h 50m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Seattle SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GEG 14:34 → PHX 17:24AA 540 49m Phoenix PHX 18:13 → SMF 20:26AA 464 5h 52m 64% 43%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 19:44 → SEA 20:51AS 319 1h 02m Seattle SEA 21:53 → SMF 23:45AS 722 4h 01m 63% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON