tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4246 at 13:18, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4246 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GJT 13:18 SLC 14:42 5% 2% 0.7% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GJT 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 4800 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → SLC 09:37UA 497 4h 07m 92% 83%
UnitedDetails → GJT 07:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1877 3h 44m Denver DEN 12:06 → SLC 13:41UA 1963 6h 41m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → GJT 05:37 → PHX 06:19AA 6431 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 08:39 → SLC 11:37AA 6422 · flown by SkyWest 6h 00m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → GJT 18:10 → DEN 19:39UA 5755 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 4h 34m 84% 61%
UnitedDetails → GJT 15:15 → DEN 16:45UA 4635 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m Denver DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769 5h 41m 94% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON