Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2453 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2453 GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2058 GRR 18:19 → ATL 20:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2453 Delta Flight history →	GRR 06:10	ATL 08:14	5%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 2161 Delta Flight history →	GRR 07:53	ATL 09:56	9%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 2547 Delta Flight history →	GRR 12:51	ATL 14:52	10%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 2058 Delta Flight history →	GRR 18:19	ATL 20:34	16%	9%	3.3%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON