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Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, F9 1308 at 20:38, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
F9 1308 Frontier Flight history → GRR 20:38 MCO 23:23 34% 12% 2.3% 80%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 6h 40m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:10 → ATL 08:14DL 2453 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 50m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:55 → DTW 06:56DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 3h 29m Detroit DTW 10:25 → MCO 13:04DL 1455 7h 09m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 5h 07m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54UA 2648 1h 16m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → GRR 06:05 → EWR 08:00UA 3718 · flown by Republic 1h 12m Newark EWR 09:12 → MCO 12:04UA 486 5h 59m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → GRR 10:34 → DTW 11:33DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m Detroit DTW 14:36 → MCO 17:16DL 337 6h 42m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → GRR 07:10 → ORD 07:32UA 2099 2h 06m Chicago ORD 09:38 → MCO 13:28UA 1643 6h 18m 96% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GRR 13:16 → DFW 15:02AA 3167 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:55 → MCO 19:41AA 2791 6h 25m 58% 34%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:45 → ORD 08:51UA 1113 47m Chicago ORD 09:38 → MCO 13:28UA 1643 4h 43m 45% 33%
AmericanDetails → GRR 17:50 → DFW 19:36AA 310 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:35 → MCO 00:21 +1AA 1336 6h 31m 56% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON