Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4720 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 4720 GSO 05:58 → LGA 07:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time Riskiest AA 4574 GSO 17:37 → LGA 19:27 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4720 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 05:58	LGA 07:43	8%	3%	4.4%	45%
DL 5292 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	GSO 06:12	LGA 07:49	8%	5%	4.3%	86%
AA 4419 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 09:28	LGA 11:13	17%	6%	3.5%	82%
YX 5781 Republic	GSO 10:37	LGA 12:22	19%	6%	3.6%	no record
9E 5132 Endeavor	GSO 14:44	LGA 16:21	34%	18%	6.3%	no record
DL 5439 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	GSO 18:16	LGA 19:53	40%	31%	8.5%	47%
AA 4574 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 17:37	LGA 19:27	44%	31%	10.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON