tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 3640 at 07:02, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3640 American flown by Envoy Flight history → GSO 07:02 MIA 09:10 10% 4% 1.2% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 32m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → GSO 07:07 → ATL 08:37DL 3004 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 55m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → GSO 05:59 → IAD 07:16UA 4251 · flown by CommuteAir 58m Dulles IAD 08:14 → MIA 11:10UA 1073 5h 11m 91% 82%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:24 → DTW 08:02DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor 1h 20m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 04m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:24 → CLT 08:25AA 3965 · flown by Envoy 1h 43m Charlotte CLT 10:08 → MIA 12:19AA 2594 4h 55m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → GSO 05:58 → LGA 07:43AA 4720 · flown by Republic 1h 45m New York LGA 09:28 → MIA 12:45AA 3211 6h 47m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → GSO 10:14 → ATL 11:31DL 3173 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323 5h 17m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → GSO 11:19 → DTW 12:57DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor 1h 34m Detroit DTW 14:31 → MIA 17:40DL 2548 6h 21m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:24 → CLT 08:25AA 3965 · flown by Envoy 53m Charlotte CLT 09:18 → MIA 11:25AA 3184 4h 01m 61% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON