Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3673 at 07:22 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 3673 GSO 07:22 → ORD 08:34 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest G7 4387 GSO 17:50 → ORD 18:49 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3673 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:22	ORD 08:34	14%	5%	2.1%	89%
G7 4437 GoJet	GSO 06:28	ORD 07:27	15%	4%	2.0%	no record
G7 4193 GoJet	GSO 10:54	ORD 12:06	19%	7%	1.9%	no record
AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 11:49	ORD 13:03	27%	12%	3.3%	83%
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 19:42	ORD 20:55	28%	11%	2.8%	85%worse than usual
G7 4387 GoJet	GSO 17:50	ORD 18:49	35%	16%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON