Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5031 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 5031 GSP 07:40 → DCA 09:21 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest OH 5468 GSP 16:56 → DCA 18:34 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5031 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 07:40	DCA 09:21	21%	9%	1.4%	78%
AA 5267 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 11:14	DCA 12:59	25%	10%	1.4%	73%
OH 5468 PSA	GSP 16:56	DCA 18:34	41%	16%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON