Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 309 Delta Flight history →	HNL 15:15	ATL 06:00	17%	5%	0.8%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:36 → SFO 17:49UA 1176	3h 52m San Francisco	SFO 21:41 → ATL 05:34 +1UA 233	13h 58m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 39m Los Angeles	LAX 17:12 → ATL 00:35 +1DL 471	11h 35m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 22:40 → ATL 06:10 +1DL 899	11h 35m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:55AS 267	3h 36m Seattle	SEA 23:31 → ATL 07:24 +1AS 464	14h 21m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	HNL 13:07 → SEA 22:05DL 359	1h 07m Seattle	SEA 23:12 → ATL 07:05 +1DL 567	11h 58m	90%	72%
United Details →	HNL 00:48 → DEN 11:33UA 1806	1h 53m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	11h 42m	97%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON