Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 20m San Francisco	SFO 18:35 → BUR 20:01UA 2001	9h 51m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:58 → SEA 15:45AS 90	3h 32m Seattle	SEA 19:17 → BUR 21:53AS 727	11h 55m	99%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	HNL 09:36 → SFO 17:49UA 1176	46m San Francisco	SFO 18:35 → BUR 20:01UA 2001	7h 25m	60%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON