Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Seattle, leaving 13:07, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 310 Delta Flight history →	HNL 14:45	DTW 05:25	16%	5%	0.9%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 13:07 → SEA 22:05DL 359	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → DTW 06:28 +1DL 810	11h 21m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 22:20 → DTW 05:43 +1DL 407	11h 08m	93%	76%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:55AS 267	2h 21m Seattle	SEA 22:16 → DTW 05:24 +1AS 315	12h 21m	96%	73%
United Details →	HNL 13:31 → SFO 21:29UA 650	1h 07m San Francisco	SFO 22:36 → DTW 06:12 +1UA 1986	10h 41m	81%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON