tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 09:36, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → HNL 09:36 → SFO 17:49UA 1176 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 21:41 → IAD 06:00 +1UA 705 14h 24m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:31 → SFO 21:29UA 650 1h 50m San Francisco SFO 23:19 → IAD 07:45 +1UA 2111 12h 14m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373 1h 48m San Francisco SFO 17:03 → IAD 01:20 +1UA 1453 12h 10m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157 2h 05m Los Angeles LAX 23:28 → IAD 07:18 +1UA 418 12h 18m 93% 77%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221 1h 10m Los Angeles LAX 16:42 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1506 11h 55m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → HNL 00:48 → DEN 11:33UA 1806 2h 20m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 12h 34m 97% 71%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:55AS 267 1h 35m Seattle SEA 21:30 → IAD 05:19 +1AS 367 12h 16m 89% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON