Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 252 United Flight history →	HNL 19:50	IAH 08:32	18%	5%	0.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	3h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 19:27 → IAH 00:59 +1UA 1680	12h 59m	97%	80%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 18:40 → IAH 00:42 +1UA 2464	12h 32m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	3h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287	11h 59m	97%	76%
United Details →	HNL 00:48 → DEN 11:33UA 1806	1h 57m Denver	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	11h 16m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:58 → SEA 15:45AS 90	1h 49m Seattle	SEA 17:34 → IAH 23:44AS 240	11h 46m	97%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	HNL 09:36 → SFO 17:49UA 1176	51m San Francisco	SFO 18:40 → IAH 00:42 +1UA 2464	10h 06m	70%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON