Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1956 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1956 HNL 06:00 → ITO 07:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1052 HNL 12:18 → ITO 13:14 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1956 Southwest	HNL 06:00	ITO 07:10	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1957 Southwest	HNL 08:55	ITO 10:06	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1002 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:10	ITO 07:03	10%	2%	1.4%	93%
AS 1022 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	ITO 08:54	13%	2%	1.3%	94%
WN 1960 Southwest	HNL 20:45	ITO 21:56	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1958 Southwest	HNL 13:30	ITO 14:41	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1012 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:05	ITO 07:58	16%	3%	1.4%	88%
WN 1959 Southwest	HNL 17:10	ITO 18:21	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1032 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:01	ITO 10:55	17%	4%	1.3%	89%
AS 1072 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:17	ITO 15:13	23%	5%	1.4%	76%
AS 1062 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:31	ITO 14:27	23%	4%	1.5%	87%worse than usual
AS 1122 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:20	ITO 20:29	23%	6%	1.2%	80%
AS 1112 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:07	ITO 19:16	24%	6%	1.2%	76%
AS 1132 Alaska	HNL 21:03	ITO 22:12	24%	5%	1.2%	no record
AS 1082 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:21	ITO 16:15	25%	6%	1.1%	64%
AS 1102 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:55	ITO 18:04	25%	5%	1.1%	74%
AS 1052 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:18	ITO 13:14	26%	6%	1.2%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON