Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 422 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 422 HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 802 HNL 13:10 → LAX 21:32 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 422 Delta Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:33	9%	3%	1.0%	94%
DL 658 Delta Flight history →	HNL 21:30	LAX 06:00	10%	3%	0.7%	93%
UA 1221 United Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:32	12%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 1169 United Flight history →	HNL 21:40	LAX 06:03	13%	4%	0.7%	92%
WN 1427 Southwest	HNL 21:24	LAX 05:42	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 144 American Flight history →	HNL 20:30	LAX 05:02	16%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 427 Delta Flight history →	HNL 12:35	LAX 21:00	16%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 162 American Flight history →	HNL 17:22	LAX 02:05	19%	5%	0.6%	81%
AS 804 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 20:42	LAX 05:10	19%	4%	0.7%	79%
UA 1157 United Flight history →	HNL 13:00	LAX 21:23	22%	6%	0.8%	83%
AA 164 American Flight history →	HNL 15:30	LAX 00:09	22%	6%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 810 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	LAX 16:20	24%	4%	0.8%	70%
AS 878 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:00	LAX 19:26	27%	5%	0.7%	60%
AS 557 Alaska	HNL 15:21	LAX 23:46	30%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 802 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:10	LAX 21:32	38%	6%	0.7%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 11:34 → KOA 12:35AS 1098	1h 42m Kailua/Kona	KOA 14:17 → LAX 22:27AS 561	7h 53m	97%	76%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754	7h 55m	92%	68%
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:37 → OGG 13:30AS 1096	1h 30m Kahului	OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07AS 934	7h 30m	93%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON