Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1517 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1517 HNL 06:24 → LIH 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1083 HNL 13:09 → LIH 14:02 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1517 Southwest	HNL 06:24	LIH 07:20	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1970 Southwest	HNL 09:39	LIH 10:35	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
AS 1003 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	LIH 06:40	9%	1%	1.6%	95%
WN 2040 Southwest	HNL 20:39	LIH 21:35	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1972 Southwest	HNL 17:19	LIH 18:15	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1053 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:50	LIH 10:43	13%	2%	1.5%	85%
AS 1043 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:12	LIH 10:05	13%	2%	1.4%	91%
AS 1033 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:33	LIH 09:14	15%	2%	1.6%	92%
AS 1013 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:10	LIH 07:50	16%	3%	2.0%	91%
WN 1499 Southwest	HNL 13:31	LIH 14:27	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1023 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:52	LIH 08:32	18%	3%	1.9%	91%
AS 1163 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:46	LIH 19:39	18%	3%	1.4%	83%
AS 1183 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:20	LIH 22:13	18%	3%	1.3%	96%worse than usual
AS 1173 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:33	LIH 20:26	18%	4%	1.3%	79%
AS 1063 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:37	LIH 11:30	19%	4%	1.5%	82%
AS 1143 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:14	LIH 18:07	23%	4%	1.3%	75%
AS 1133 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:32	LIH 17:25	25%	5%	1.4%	65%
AS 1113 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:17	LIH 16:10	26%	5%	1.7%	68%
AS 1073 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:19	LIH 12:12	26%	5%	1.5%	62%
AS 1123 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:55	LIH 16:48	27%	5%	1.6%	68%
AS 1083 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:09	LIH 14:02	30%	5%	1.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON