Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 00:48, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 313 Delta Flight history →	HNL 16:20	MSP 05:02	13%	5%	0.8%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 06:58 → SEA 15:45AS 90	2h 53m Seattle	SEA 18:38 → MSP 23:54AS 527	11h 56m	98%	75%
United Details →	HNL 00:48 → DEN 11:33UA 1806	2h 09m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	10h 58m	97%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON