Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:10, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1973 Southwest	HNL 13:30	OAK 21:35	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 848 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:40	OAK 20:42	25%	5%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	3h 34m Kahului	OGG 12:17 → OAK 20:19AS 924	9h 17m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	HNL 08:33 → LIH 09:14AS 1033	3h 26m Lihue	LIH 12:40 → OAK 21:06AS 968	9h 33m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:58 → SEA 15:45AS 90	59m Seattle	SEA 16:44 → OAK 18:51AS 1328	8h 53m	83%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:55AS 267	50m Seattle	SEA 20:45 → OAK 22:50AS 706	8h 47m	65%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON