Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1975 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1975 HNL 05:50 → OGG 06:46 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1116 HNL 13:01 → OGG 13:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1975 Southwest	HNL 05:50	OGG 06:46	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1523 Southwest	HNL 09:50	OGG 10:46	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1978 Southwest	HNL 08:00	OGG 08:56	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1983 Southwest	HNL 17:24	OGG 18:20	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1432 Southwest	HNL 20:29	OGG 21:25	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1982 Southwest	HNL 15:49	OGG 16:45	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1980 Southwest	HNL 12:23	OGG 13:19	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1016 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	OGG 06:40	9%	1%	1.0%	94%
WN 1981 Southwest	HNL 14:00	OGG 14:56	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1046 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:02	OGG 08:43	13%	2%	0.9%	95%
AS 1056 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:16	OGG 10:09	15%	2%	0.8%	91%
AS 1196 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:31	OGG 20:24	16%	4%	0.8%	85%
AS 1036 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:26	OGG 08:06	17%	2%	1.0%	86%
AS 1416 Alaska	HNL 08:21	OGG 09:13	17%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1066 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:10	OGG 10:52	18%	3%	0.8%	79%
AS 1206 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:00	OGG 21:53	18%	3%	0.7%	81%
AS 1076 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:59	OGG 11:41	18%	3%	0.8%	84%
AS 1176 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:42	OGG 18:23	19%	4%	0.8%	82%
AS 1186 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:27	OGG 19:08	19%	4%	0.8%	78%
AS 1436 Alaska	HNL 16:00	OGG 16:52	21%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 1096 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:37	OGG 13:30	22%	4%	0.9%	79%
AS 1086 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:24	OGG 12:07	22%	3%	0.9%	75%
AS 1426 Alaska	HNL 12:16	OGG 13:08	22%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 1156 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:43	OGG 17:24	23%	4%	0.8%	70%
AS 1146 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:18	OGG 16:11	23%	4%	0.8%	71%
AS 1136 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:49	OGG 15:42	24%	4%	0.8%	65%
AS 1126 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:40	OGG 14:33	26%	4%	0.9%	72%
AS 1116 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:01	OGG 13:45	28%	4%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON