Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1428 at 12:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1428 HNL 12:05 → ONT 20:33 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 271 HNL 13:02 → ONT 21:27 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1428 Southwest	HNL 12:05	ONT 20:33	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 2749 Alaska	HNL 19:50	ONT 04:25	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 271 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:02	ONT 21:27	28%	6%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON