tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 13:31, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 218 United Flight history → HNL 16:00 ORD 05:05 14% 6% 0.9% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:31 → SFO 21:29UA 650 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368 11h 26m 97% 76%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:55AS 267 3h 44m Seattle SEA 23:39 → ORD 05:39 +1AS 285 13h 36m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 18:48 → ORD 00:56 +1UA 1958 12h 46m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157 2h 07m Los Angeles LAX 23:30 → ORD 05:46 +1UA 1962 11h 46m 93% 71%
DeltaDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422 1h 42m Los Angeles LAX 17:15 → ORD 23:18DL 1634 11h 18m 96% 69%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 06:58 → SEA 15:45AS 90 2h 03m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 12h 01m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221 1h 08m Los Angeles LAX 16:40 → ORD 22:44UA 2780 10h 44m 92% 63%
UnitedDetails → HNL 00:48 → DEN 11:33UA 1806 1h 52m Denver DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 11h 17m 97% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON