Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 19:31, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 879 Alaska	HNL 21:42	PDX 06:45	19%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 814 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:22	PDX 20:50	28%	5%	1.1%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 17:42 → OGG 18:23AS 1176	3h 29m Kahului	OGG 21:52 → PDX 06:35 +1AS 558	9h 53m	100%	88%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:26 → OGG 08:06AS 1036	3h 08m Kahului	OGG 11:14 → PDX 19:53AS 890	9h 27m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:30 → KOA 08:31AS 1038	3h 27m Kailua/Kona	KOA 11:58 → PDX 20:35AS 253	10h 05m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	HNL 08:33 → LIH 09:14AS 1033	3h 07m Lihue	LIH 12:21 → PDX 21:13AS 901	9h 40m	100%	79%
United Details →	HNL 00:48 → DEN 11:36UA 1806	1h 51m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	11h 25m	97%	77%
United Details →	HNL 09:36 → SFO 17:52UA 1176	2h 58m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	10h 12m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	2h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 18:27 → PDX 20:48AS 1397	9h 48m	97%	76%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	3h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 20:34 → PDX 22:54AS 790	11h 59m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:37 → LIH 11:30AS 1063	51m Lihue	LIH 12:21 → PDX 21:13AS 901	7h 36m	51%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON