Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1988 at 20:54 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1988 HNL 20:54 → PHX 05:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 836 HNL 11:50 → PHX 20:47 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1988 Southwest	HNL 20:54	PHX 05:49	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 694 American Flight history →	HNL 22:16	PHX 07:15	17%	6%	0.8%	82%
AS 836 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:50	PHX 20:47	21%	5%	0.7%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 22:05 → PHX 23:40DL 3827 · flown by SkyWest	8h 05m	87%	70%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574	8h 29m	92%	64%
United Details →	HNL 09:36 → SFO 17:52UA 1176	1h 06m San Francisco	SFO 18:58 → PHX 21:02UA 1375	8h 26m	89%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON