Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1989 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1989 HNL 08:09 → SAN 16:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 816 HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1989 Southwest	HNL 08:09	SAN 16:31	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1991 Southwest	HNL 21:54	SAN 06:19	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 827 Alaska	HNL 07:17	SAN 15:56	19%	4%	1.5%	no record
AS 93 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:59	SAN 06:28	23%	3%	1.4%	89%worse than usual
AS 816 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:39	SAN 21:07	32%	4%	1.5%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 07:59 → KOA 09:00AS 1048	1h 37m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	8h 03m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:10 → OGG 10:52AS 1066	1h 30m Kahului	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	7h 33m	97%	73%
Alaska Details →	HNL 21:00 → OGG 21:53AS 1206	1h 10m Kahului	OGG 23:03 → SAN 07:20 +1AS 484	7h 20m	93%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON